Thursday, November 8, 2012

Some positive news for US housing

Recent data continues to favor the US housing market. Here are three data points.

1. Household formation has picked up pace in Q3 to 1.2 million. It seems family formation has stabilized from the weak growth trend in the past few years (see discussion; the US Census should have more details in January).

Source: JPMorgan

2. Homeowner vacancies showed a sharp decline in the third quarter.

Source: US Census Bureau

3. REIS reported that the ratio of mortgage payments (based on the median house price) to apartment rents is at 0.63 - near record lows.

We could be looking at a surge in housing starts in 2013, potentially leading to a nice rise in construction payrolls (according to some estimates we could see over 250K new resi construction jobs plus all the jobs created in supporting industries).
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