Friday, November 9, 2012

Goldman's world GDP projection for 2050

Goldman recently published their projections for GDP levels by nation 38 years into the future. This has to be a difficult forecast to make - involving assumptions that, if changed slightly, could impact the outcome materially. Nevertheless it is worth taking a look at these results.

Source: GS

Here are some observations:

1. BRIC nations (a term coined by Goldman some 10 years ago) dominate the world's economic output by 2050. These four countries generated close to half of the world's GDP growth in the past decade, and in spite of slower growth expectations going forward, this projection does not seem unreasonable.

2. It is a bit surprising to see Nigeria ahead of Turkey and Egypt in front of Canada. It is also strange that Saudi Arabia did not make this list, given the nation's rapid growth. GS seems to be projecting rapid growth for some non-BRIC EMG nations such as Indonesia and Nigeria (possibly because of population growth).

3. Projections for GDP per capita look quite different of course, with BRIC nations still lagging. It does seem strange however to see Russia's GDP per capita ahead of Italy's (currently Italy's GDP per capita is almost twice that of Russia - see chart). It's also interesting to see France ahead of Germany in the total GDP output as well as GDP per capita. Apparently the world will look very different in 38 years.

Source: GS
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