Monday, October 20, 2014

No hard-landing for China's economy for now

China's GDP growth is gradually slowing as expected - at least according to the official reports.

Growth is now at the lowest level since 2009, but so far the Bloomberg China GDP Tracker forecast of a sharp correction this quarter has not materialized.

Source: @M_McDonough

In fact, the nation's industrial production growth, which continues to decline, came in better than expected.

Fixed asset investment growth shows a similar slowing pattern - now growing at 16% per year.

Have the various hard-landing predictions (many focused on the worrisome credit expansion in China) been too draconian? From a number of recent indicators it seems that China's economic growth is gradually grinding lower - perhaps toward something like a 4% per annum in 2020 (see report). Unless of course China's official economic reports are completely flawed - which is always a possibility.

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