Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Survey results

Here are the survey results from the post on Friday's market action in treasuries (see post).

Below are some of the "other" reasons the survey participants pointed out:
  • many tactical shorts that have been squeezed, may be some shorts throwing the towel
  • QE taper end always sees bonds rally
  • Equity market risk
  • Price action: Trend followers who missed the move so far saw a good entry point to get long
  • players realize dire circumstances EM are in and that Fed has no choice but to quash rates through 2020 and maybe beyond - see Levy reference in Barron's by Forsyth this week
  • deflation; payrolls are a lagging indicator
  • US 10-y yield attractive at 1.8 times Bund 10-y, or versus JGB 10-y
  • Slowing global growth
  • no inflationary pressure, real yields at the long end are very compelling
  • Unwind of risk on trade because of tapering.
  • growing awareness that the "neutral" policy rate is low

Apologies if your "other" response wan't included - there were just too many to list.
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