Monday, December 3, 2012

The SHIBOR curve is now positively sloping

Another indicator pointing to some stabilization in China's economic growth (see discussion) is the SHIBOR curve. SHIBOR is China's measure of domestic interbank lending rates. The curve has gone from being inverted 18 months ago (inverted curves tend to indicate an impending economic slowdown) to a more traditional upward sloping shape. Note that the slope is still quite low, potentially indicating weak recovery.

The same holds true for longer term rates. The SHIBOR-based interest rate swap curve (similar to the LIBOR based interest rate swap curve in the US) is now also positively sloping (though only slightly).

Source: Chinamoney
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