Monday, July 16, 2012

The 5yr treasury yield hits a record low

The recent compression in US treasury yields has been nothing short of extraordinary. Driven by the full realization that we are in a global slowdown, the 5-year hit a record low today of just under 0.6%, following a decline that has been ongoing for decades.

US 5yr treasury yield

WSJ: - U.S. Treasury yields fell to the brink of new all-time lows [the 5-year is in fact at an all-time low today, but the WSJ reporter seems to only track the 10yr] as concerns about a U.S. economic slowdown spurred demand for financial safety, extending the market's rally this month.

The benchmark 10-year note yielded as little as 1.440% midday, a hair away from its 1.437% record low set on June 1 after a weak employment report. The yield on five-year notes sank as low as 0.577%, a new record for that maturity. Bond yields fall when prices rise.

A retail industry report early Monday showed sales falling for the third consecutive month in June, stoking fears about a snag in the U.S. recovery. Consumer spending, a crux of the U.S. economy, remains constrained by high unemployment and households' efforts to work off debt.

"Clearly things are slowing down, more so than most had expected," said Larry Milstein, head of government and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. "For a while, everyone was focused just on Europe. Now we're seeing the slowdown here and in China—major drivers of global growth."
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