Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Ron Paul ahead in Iowa as Intrade is jammed

Intrade, the "wisdom of crowds" is completely jammed as volumes spike in Iowa caucus betting. This happened before particularly during election surprises or close calls, but obvously the problem has not been resolved. Participants will quickly lose faith in the market if they have trouble unwinding positions during the most volatile periods.

But if you are patient enough, for a brief time you may see Ron Paul ahead of the competition.  Not clear if this is at all sustainable (the lead is likely to fade), but it certainly is surprising. Even if Paul doesn't progress from here, this is still quite a victory for the US Libertarians. This group was viewed as a fringe movement just a few years ago but now has entered the mainstream.

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