Tuesday, July 21, 2009

CIT CDS still at distressed levels

Following up on the post called CIT Lifeline Here is a quote from Reuters:
The lender said it could file for bankruptcy if the offer does not succeed. The offer, disclosed on Monday, is $825 for each $1,000 principal amount of notes tendered on or before July 31.

As the shares dip below $1 again the market is saying the risk in CIT is still tremendous. Let's take a look at CDS levels (which are significantly off the highs):

CIT 5-yr CDS spread

This chart shows the CIT CDS term structure. The curve is inverted as it generally is for distressed names. This basically says that the longer CIT survives the more chances are it will be able to stabilize it's business. Again, the levels are off from the highs, but it still trades inverted - very much like a distressed name.

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