Sober Look

The ISI Group combined four US regional Fed indices with Markit Manufacturing PMI to create a comprehensive US manufacturing index (chart ...

The US and Europe economic surprise indices have diverged dramatically recently. After the weakness in new orders during the summer, econo...

The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) hit a new post-recession low this month. The index is a composite of corporate outlook by industr...

After a sharp decline, the Obama victory odds on Intrade seem to have have stabilized at around 63% (chart below). The betting market was ...

Today's employment report has sent the Citi Economic Surprise index sharply higher. Citi Economic Surprise Index This is build...

A massive monthly decline in US durable goods orders in August once again demonstrated the vulnerability of the US manufacturing sector. T...

The Citi Economic Surprise index was fairly accurate in pointing to a US slowdown in the first half of 2012. One therefore should not dism...

The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues its relentless slide . The US PMI (52.9 vs. 53.3 expected), the Philadelphia Fed Diffusion Inde...

Today's employment report brought with it all sorts of negative economic surprises, creating a sharp drop in the Citi Economic Surpris...

The Citigroup economic surprise index is now clearly in the negative territory in a trend reminiscent of last year's decline. C...

Notice how the US economic data coming out lately has been quite mediocre relative to expectations? For example, today's pending home ...