Saturday, November 8, 2014

China's exports spike but data unreliable

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Yesterday’s trade report out of China showed stronger than expected export growth, with trade surplus surging . While some of that can be ...
Monday, November 3, 2014

Decomposing the velocity of money

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We've received some questions about the ongoing declines in the velocity of money in spite of stronger US GDP growth in the past coupl...

Mortgage bond issuance the lowest since 2000

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The availability of residential mortgage bonds in the United States has been shrinking. Private mortgage securitization markets are nonexi...
Sunday, November 2, 2014

The Fed to release $600bn of treasuries into the reverse repo market at year-end

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Staying with the theme of the Federal Reserve's experimentation with new policy tools, the central bank is expected to introduce a te...
Friday, October 31, 2014

The Fed's Term Deposit Facility comes of age

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As discussed earlier ( see post ), the US monetary base had stopped growing in July and is now in fact lower than it was over the past few...
Thursday, October 30, 2014

Lower crude oil price in the US does not imply oversupply

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Social media has been circulating this chart  on US crude oil, that seems to indicate that the US is sitting on excessive inventories. Tha...
Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Distinguishing the Fed's securities purchases from monetary expansion

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There has been a bit of confusion about what today's FOMC announcement means with respect to Quantitative Easing. The statement says t...

How well does the CPI measure individuals’ health care burden?

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Guest post by Jonathan Bernstein Medical costs rose at an official rate of 1.7% year on year this past September, but the average incre...