Friday, October 4, 2013

The shutdown and the economy

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The US federal government impasse is clearly having a material impact on the economy.  The impact is both direct - from government employe...

Q3 M&A deal volume worst since 2009

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Except for a few high profile mega-deals, such as Dell and Verizon Wireless, mergers and acquisitions volume remains light both in the US ...
Thursday, October 3, 2013

HY spreads now positively correlated to treasury yields

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Here is further evidence that in this environment treasuries are driving "risk asset" valuations. Corporate HY bond spreads are ...
Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Market beginning to price in the risk of US technical default

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We've seen this movie in 2011. Washington's inability to raise the debt ceiling could make the current government shutdown look li...

Additional confirmation of flawed jobless claims reports

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We now have further confirmation that the Department of Labor recent reports on jobless claims have been flawed ( see post ). The sudden d...
Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Commodities under pressure again

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The rally in commodities, which started in August has petered out. Several major commodities indices show significant declines on a year-o...

Is the anti-ObamaCare campaign hurting the Republicans?

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The Rasmussen daily survey (chart below) seems to indicate that the government closure may in fact be helping the Obama administration...
Monday, September 30, 2013

US CDS widens as shutdown looms

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The US sovereign CDS spread has risen in the past couple days with the government shutdown becoming more real. Source: DB But it...