Sober Look

The five-year treasury yield hit a multi-year high relative to the average of the two- and the ten-year rates (the 5-year treasury is chea...

Many continue to argue that the rate normalization taking place now will slow business activity in the US. Good luck betting on that howev...

Treasuries once again experienced what amounts to a sharp curve flattening in recent days. The market action resembled what took place aft...

In a couple of earlier discussions ( here and here ) we talked about a significant buildup of treasury short positions. Since then there ...

The treasury yield curve remains quite steep by historical standards. Typically such steepness is driven by expectations of higher inflati...

Since the Fed announced the reduction in securities purchases ( "small taper" ), the treasury curve has undergone some strange a...

ETF Trends recently published an article called "Treasury ETFs: The Ultimate Contrarian Trade" ( here ). It seems that from the ...

As discussed in the previous post the ECB's move to set the deposit rate to zero has pushed the short end (2 years and under) of the ...

PBoC, China's central bank, is having trouble stimulating lending. The trouble now seems to be more demand driven, as the economic sl...

Risk measurement models often attempt to project the behavior of the yield curve based on historical rate movements. But the assumptions t...

Spain's yields are lower than Italy's at the short end but higher for all the longer dated bonds. It's worth understanding the...

The Greek PSI (new) bonds are now actively quoted. Prices vary with maturities - roughly between €17 and €25 (17 to 25 cents on the euro)...

In the US an inverted government bond yield curve tends to forecast a recession. An inverted US yield curve has predicted a worsening econ...

This week we finally saw a sell-off in longer term treasuries after a relentless rally. With a great deal of new supply hitting the market...

Part of the explanation for the strength in the longer term treasury markets continues to be Fed's Operation Twiest Businessweek :...

A distressed credit tends to exhibit the so-called "inverted yield curve".  The reason is that in a bankruptcy the bond maturity...

As Spain struggled to sell short-term debt this morning in an auction that showed how desparate the situation is becoming, the bond sprea...

The 3-month T-bill yield has collapsed to new lows, yielding half a basis point. That means if you plow a million dollars into 3-month bills...

The US Treasury has been issuing enormous amounts of bills to finance the administration's efforts, keeping the average maturity of de...

The Fed is gearing up to purchase treasuries all along the yield curve. Looks like quantitative easing across the board in the next two week...