Sober Look

Guest post by Norman Mogil Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a persistent shortage of high-quality government debt. Mo...

While many investors refuse to accept this fact, we are clearly marching toward higher treasury yields later in the year and in 2015. Even...

It remains difficult to reconcile treasuries trading at the same yields we saw during the US government shutdown ( see post ) with broadly...

We've had an unprecedented compression in US (and global) government bond yields in a short period of time. Here is one surprising fac...

Here are the survey results from the post on Friday's market action in treasuries ( see post ). Below are some of the "other...

Many were surprised by the strength of the US April payrolls report yesterday. Source: Investing.com However this should not have b...

Treasuries rallied sharply last week, mostly on the back of the sell-off in equities as well as in response to the Fed's seeming backp...

The five-year treasury yield hit a multi-year high relative to the average of the two- and the ten-year rates (the 5-year treasury is chea...

Treasuries once again experienced what amounts to a sharp curve flattening in recent days. The market action resembled what took place aft...

The chart below compares the performance of long-term treasuries (TLO) to emerging market bonds (EMB) over the past year. Source: Ycha...

In a couple of earlier discussions ( here and here ) we talked about a significant buildup of treasury short positions. Since then there ...

Directional investors/traders remain heavily short or under-invested in the bond market. For example the CFTC commitment of traders shows ...

Today's payrolls shocker ( see story ) sent treasury yields sharply lower. As discussed last month ( see post ), speculative investors...

When it comes to treasuries, there is no shortage of bearish news. The budget deal is done, the third quarter GDP was better than expected (...

The Gallop sentiment index is now at the lowest level since 2011, when doubts about Italy's ability to roll its debt posed risks to EM...

Here is further evidence that in this environment treasuries are driving "risk asset" valuations. Corporate HY bond spreads are ...

While yields on treasury notes and bonds have risen across the board in 2013, the jump in rates has been uneven. The 5-10-year rates - the...

Rising rates should be good for a currency. At least that's the theory. And those who believe it have been disappointed in the last fe...

The histogram below shows the total return of long-dated treasuries over a rolling 4-month period since 2007. The rationale for using a 4-...

Speculative money has become visibly short rate products. As discussed this weekend ( see post ) there still seems to be a broad bearish s...